{"id":281999,"date":"2026-02-25T10:00:51","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T15:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/?p=281999"},"modified":"2026-02-24T14:49:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T19:49:17","slug":"is-an-economic-turnaround-on-the-horizon-februarys-race-jobs-and-the-economy-recap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/is-an-economic-turnaround-on-the-horizon-februarys-race-jobs-and-the-economy-recap\/","title":{"rendered":"Is an Economic Turnaround on the Horizon? February\u2019s Race, Jobs and the Economy Recap"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s hard to overstate how much of a surprise the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 January jobs report was with 130,000 jobs being added and an unemployment rate that declined a tenth of a percent to 4.3%. This was the first jobs report that resoundingly exceeded consensus expectations since 2024. The diffusion rate – a measure of how many industries recorded positive jobs growth – increased to its highest level since November 2024. As impressive as the topline figures from the jobs report appear, some indicators suggest we may not see many more promising reports in 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the diffusion index increased, it only reflects industries that gained at least one job. In January, as with all of 2025, the healthcare sector accounted for the bulk of the job gains. Additionally, the unemployment rate declined last month, with both the average duration of unemployment (23.9 weeks) and the percentage of people who have been unemployed for 6 months or longer (25% of all total unemployed) remaining elevated.<\/span><\/p>\n

BLS\u2019s most recent jobs report featured an updated methodology resulting in 11 out of 12 months in 2025 having revised job gains that were less than previously published. We can expect January\u2019s job gains to be revised downward, possibly below 100,000. Additionally, job openings dropped precipitously in December and were down by over 1 million openings from September.<\/span><\/p>\n

The slowing job market has been devastating for new college graduates. <\/span>According to Goldman Sachs<\/span><\/a>, previously high-demand industries, such as the information technology and finance sectors, that have historically employed the largest number of college graduates lost about 9,000 jobs per month between 2023 and 2025. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, those industries were adding about 44,000 jobs a month.<\/span><\/p>\n

While new college graduates are facing a difficult time, so too are <\/span>Black women with college degrees<\/span><\/a>. In 2025, Black women had the largest drop in their employment-to-population ratio compared to other racial groups. However, among Black women, those with bachelor\u2019s degrees had the steepest declines. The largest losses came from the public sector, including the federal government, where over 270,000 Black women lost their jobs. Black women bore the brunt of the DOGE cuts last year as well.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Whether last month’s BLS job reports numbers are a fluke or a sign that the labor market is experiencing a turnaround still remains unclear. Both job openings and <\/span>consumer spending<\/span><\/a> declined in December, thus the answer is likely closer to the former. Nevertheless, next month\u2019s jobs report will provide clues as to what direction the economy will take in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Joseph Dean is the<\/em> Racial Economic Research Specialist with NCRC’s Research team.<\/em><\/p>\n

Photo credit: nappy via Pexels.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s hard to overstate how much of a surprise the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 January jobs report was with 130,000 jobs being added and an unemployment rate that declined a tenth of a percent to 4.3%. This was the first jobs report that resoundingly exceeded consensus expectations since 2024. The diffusion rate – a measure 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This was the first jobs report that resoundingly exceeded consensus expectations since 2024. The diffusion rate – a measure…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4019"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=281999"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281999\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/282002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=281999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=281999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=281999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}