{"id":279356,"date":"2026-01-28T10:00:35","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T15:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/?p=279356"},"modified":"2026-02-05T13:09:53","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T18:09:53","slug":"in-a-new-year-old-uncertainties-remain-january-2026s-race-jobs-and-the-economy-recap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/in-a-new-year-old-uncertainties-remain-january-2026s-race-jobs-and-the-economy-recap\/","title":{"rendered":"In a New Year, Old Uncertainties Remain: January 2026\u2019s Race, Jobs and the Economy Recap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2025 was a year of slowing job gains, a bifurcated consumer economy and trade war uncertainties. These negative trends will likely continue and intensify in 2026. The last jobs report for the year produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics only further confirms the anemic nature of the jobs market. The economy added a modest 50,000 jobs last December, with the vast majority of gains being in the healthcare and social assistance sectors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last year saw a tremendous slowdown in job gains, with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/11\/22\/the-exit-economy-black-women-labor-force-participation-inequality\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">over 600,000 Black women<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> leaving the workforce. While the Black unemployment rate receded from its multi-year high of 8.2% last November, it remains elevated relative to its level at the beginning of 2025. The Hispanic unemployment rate reached its highest point in 4 years (5.5%), led by a surge in joblessness for Hispanic women.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The major theme of the 2025 labor market was the unwillingness of companies to hire applicants and the relatively low number of layoffs. Dubbed the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2025\/12\/29\/dude-wheres-my-job-low-hire-fire-k-shaped-economy-great-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">low-hire\/low-fire jobs market<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, it was also marked by the dominance of just one industry: healthcare. Without the healthcare industry, the economy would have lost a staggering 129,000 jobs last year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The chart below details the fact that the economy added a net (gains minus losses) 584,000 jobs last year, while healthcare added a net 713,000 jobs:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-X2b9T\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"The Economy Lost Jobs in 2025 Without Healthcare\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/X2b9T\/4\/\" height=\"384\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Small multiple column chart\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";r.style.height=d}}});<\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The increase in the aging population in the US has led to a greater demand for healthcare workers and social service providers, two industries that comprise around <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cps\/cpsaat18.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">77% and 84% women<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in their ranks, respectively. While the healthcare sector is known for relatively high-paying careers, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/medicareadvocacy.org\/structural-racism-in-health-care-workforce-black-women-more-likely-to-work-in-low-level-health-care-jobs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black women<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> tend to be confined to lower-paying roles. Of all major industries, healthcare support occupations have the lowest yearly wages, which comprise the bulk of healthcare and social assistance sector jobs. This likely means that the majority of the employment growth seen last year was due to increases in these low-paying healthcare jobs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The stagnant labor market can be broadly attributed to the uncertainties stemming from the tariffs. No industry epitomizes the destructive nature of this more than the manufacturing sector, the sector the President stated would benefit the most from his protectionist tariffs. Since tariffs were announced in April of last year, the manufacturing sector has experienced eight consecutive months of job losses totaling 72,000 jobs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Layoffs were at their highest level since 2008 (excluding 2020) and, even worse, planned hiring rates were at their lowest since 2010. \u201cNegative market conditions\u201d was the most cited reason for the layoffs. These figures were compiled by the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.challengergray.com\/blog\/2025-year-end-challenger-report-highest-q4-layoffs-since-2008-lowest-ytd-hiring-since-2010\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">outplacement firm Challenger<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> given that possibly biased government data sources maintain that overall layoffs remain low.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In addition to the high probability that we\u2019re in a low-fire\/low-hire labor market, the broader economy resembles what is commonly described as a \u201cK\u201d shaped economy. This moniker denotes an economy where higher-income households buoyed by rising asset prices contribute to an increasing share of consumer spending, while low and middle-income households end up cutting back on consumer spending. This phenomenon is evident in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/suzannerowankelleher\/2026\/01\/14\/delta-air-lines-k-shaped-liked-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delta Airlines&#8217; 2025 record earnings<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, where, despite a 7% decline in revenue from economy cabin tickets, premium seating ticket revenue increased by 9%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite comprising a greater share of consumer spending, higher-income households were consistently more pessimistic about the state of the labor market and future unemployment trends than their lower and middle-income counterparts throughout 2025. In fact, higher-income households recorded their lowest index score since the depths of the Great Recession in the latest <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/subset\/subset.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Survey of Consumers<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> released last November.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recently, new tariffs on several European countries were announced, with the European Union threatening to deploy a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/economy\/2026\/1\/20\/trumps-greenland-tariffs-whats-europes-bazooka-option-to-hit-back\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201ctrade bazooka\u201d<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in response. Formerly known as the \u201cAnti-Coercion Instrument,\u201d it is a multi-layered retaliatory strategy that could involve steep tariffs, customs restrictions and, perhaps most severe, the full closure of the European market to US companies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the trade war between Europe and the United States escalates, many of the goods that low- to moderate-income households buy could increase drastically in price. Because lower-income households spend more of their income on items like food, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.apolloacademy.com\/the-k-shaped-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">they experience greater impacts of inflation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> than higher-income households. A US-Europe trade war would only add to their inflation worries and further depress an already stagnant job market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It also illustrates the three core issues facing the US economy: a potentially devastating trade war, a worsening job market and increasing disparities between lower-income and higher-income households. For the sake of those least responsible but most vulnerable to these headwinds, let us hope disaster can be averted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"selectionShareable\"><em>Joseph Dean is the\u00a0Jr. Racial Economic Research Specialist with NCRC\u2019s Research team.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Photo credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pexels.com\/photo\/cargo-ship-near-pier-with-lifting-cranes-6572428\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kelly via Pexels<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2025 was a year of slowing job gains, a bifurcated consumer economy and trade war uncertainties. These negative trends will likely continue and intensify in 2026. The last jobs report for the year produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics only further confirms the anemic nature of the jobs market. The economy added a modest 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Dean","author_link":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/?s=joseph+dean"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"2025 was a year of slowing job gains, a bifurcated consumer economy and trade war uncertainties. These negative trends will likely continue and intensify in 2026. The last jobs report for the year produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics only further confirms the anemic nature of the jobs market. The economy added a modest&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4019"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=279356"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279356\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/279382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=279356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=279356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=279356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}