{"id":171880,"date":"2024-06-11T10:26:45","date_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:26:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/?p=171880"},"modified":"2024-06-11T10:26:45","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T14:26:45","slug":"an-anxious-economy-midyear-race-jobs-and-the-economy-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/an-anxious-economy-midyear-race-jobs-and-the-economy-update\/","title":{"rendered":"An Anxious Economy: A Mid-Year Race Jobs and the Economy Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

In this edition of our <\/span>Race, Jobs and the Economy series<\/span><\/a> decoding each month\u2019s <\/span>Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report<\/span><\/a>, we evaluate the overall state of the economy so far this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysis of Topline Figures in the May BLS Report<\/b><\/p>\n

The economy gained 272,000 jobs in May. After staying within the 3.7% to 3.9% range for 9 months, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%.<\/span><\/p>\n

The industries with the largest employment gains were led by healthcare (+68,000) followed by government (+43,000), leisure and hospitality (+42,000) and professional services (+32,000).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The unemployment rate for most demographic groups changed little from April to May, except for Black male workers. Black men\u2019s experience of the job market continued its recent erratic pattern from <\/span>month<\/span><\/a> to month, rising from 5.2% to 6.4% \u2013 far above <\/span>the levels observed last winter<\/span><\/a>. This jump caused the unemployment rate for Black workers to increase from 5.6% to 6.1%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The topline May jobs numbers far exceeded economists\u2019 predictions, prompting Wall Street to interpret the report as a <\/span>blowout.<\/span><\/a> But that silver cloud has a lead lining: Despite the impressive overall jobs figures, the report is a mixed bag at best. The number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate each increased by 157,000 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. Part-time employment increased and the hiring of temporary workers declined \u2013 two shifts seen as a harbinger of labor market weakness in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

Troubling Signs for the Economy<\/b><\/p>\n

As we approach the midpoint of 2024, the economy and the labor market look anxiously toward the future. There is a concern among analysts and economists that the economy is facing severe headwinds with signs of a slowdown.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently <\/span>released<\/span><\/a> its estimate on the real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year. Real GDP is the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States. Think of it like a measuring stick for the health of the economy. BEA estimated that real GDP will increase at an annual rate of 1.3% \u2013 an alarming dropoff from the 3.4% annualized growth reported for Q4 of 2023. The projection cited softer spending by both consumers and the government as the primary drivers in the deceleration of real GDP this quarter. This leads to three major challenges for the economy: persistent inflation, slowing private sector jobs growth and consumer spending woes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Housing Continues to Play a Major Role In Inflation<\/b><\/p>\n