{"id":139222,"date":"2023-06-02T13:13:59","date_gmt":"2023-06-02T17:13:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/?p=139222"},"modified":"2023-11-03T13:20:51","modified_gmt":"2023-11-03T17:20:51","slug":"continued-wage-growth-but-a-possible-warning-sign-from-black-workers-race-jobs-the-economy-update-may-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/continued-wage-growth-but-a-possible-warning-sign-from-black-workers-race-jobs-the-economy-update-may-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Continued Wage Growth, But A Possible Warning Sign From Black Workers:\u00a0Race, Jobs &#038; The Economy Update &#8211; May 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 339,000 in May. That&#8217;s good news and falls in line with the average monthly gain of 341,000 over the previous year. The 3.7% national unemployment rate indicates a resilient job market, which has continually added positions across various sectors. But when we delve deeper into the figures, a more complex narrative emerges.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Takeaways from the May Employment Situation Report include:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The topline national unemployment rate remained low at 3.7%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black unemployment rose dramatically from its historic low of 4.7% last month, jumping to 5.6%. Rising Black unemployment is often the first to increase prior to a recession.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The construction sector continued to show rising employment and rising wages, benefitting Hispanic workers, who represent 35% of all construction workers, and helping to lower Hispanic unemployment to 4%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-sbip9\" style=\"border: none;\" title=\"Black Unemployment\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/sbip9\/1\/\" width=\"600\" height=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Several industries showed strong job growth in May. Professional and business services led the pack, adding 64,000 jobs. The government sector added 56,000 positions, healthcare boosted employment with 52,000 new jobs, while construction and social assistance industries contributed 25,000 and 22,000 jobs respectively. Additionally, the leisure and hospitality sector continued its upward trend, adding 48,000 jobs. Wages also continued to rise in May. Weekly earnings increased from $33.33 to $33.44. Since May of 2022 average hourly wages have risen $1.38.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This broad-based job growth is a positive sign for the economy, suggesting demand for workers is strong across different sectors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While the overall unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%, the increase was not uniform across racial and ethnic groups. The unemployment rate for Black workers jumped from its historic low of 4.7% in April to 5.6% in May, a significant 0.9 percentage point increase. Hispanic workers, by contrast, saw a decrease in unemployment, down 0.4 percentage points from April to 4.0%. This is likely due to the steady growth in construction jobs, an industry where Hispanic workers make up 35% of the workforce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In comparison, the unemployment rate for White workers edged up by only 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%. The racial unemployment gap is a complex issue, resulting from a combination of factors including education disparities, discrimination and differences in industry representation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The rapid increase in Black unemployment in May is a cause for concern \u2013 not only for racial equity advocates but the entire US economy. Historical patterns show <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/08\/24\/business\/economy\/black-workers-recession.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black unemployment often rises before a recession<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Black unemployment rate is sometimes seen as a &#8220;canary in the coal mine&#8221; for the broader economy. When it begins to rise, it can be an early signal of a potential downturn. This is due to a variety of factors, including the fact that Black workers are often overrepresented in industries more susceptible to economic volatility. Therefore, a continued increase in Black unemployment could be an early warning sign of a future recession.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><strong>Top Line Numbers<\/strong><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Overall unemployment rose 0.3% to 3.7%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">339,000 jobs were added in May, the average gain over the last twelve months has been 341,000<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Biggest gains in employment were in healthcare (74,6000), professional and business services (64,000), Government (56,000), Leisure and Hospitality (48,000), and Construction (25,000).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5>Unemployment Rate by Race and Gender<\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The White unemployment rate increased 0.2% since April to 3.3%<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">White Men&#8217;s unemployment rate increased 0.2% since April to 3.3%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">White Women&#8217;s unemployment rate increased 0.1% since April to 2.9%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black unemployment rate increased 0.9% since April to 5.6%<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black Men&#8217;s unemployment rate increased 1.1% since April to 5.6%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black Women&#8217;s unemployment rate increased 0.9% since April to 5.3%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hispanic unemployment rate decreased 0.4% since April to 4%<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hispanic Men&#8217;s unemployment rate decreased 0.1% since April to 4%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hispanic Women&#8217;s unemployment rate decreased 0.7% since April to 3.4%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Asian unemployment rate increased 0.1% since April to 2.9%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5>Raw Total Joblessness, LFPR and Wages<\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Number of People Employed decreased by 310,000 in May<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">White Employed decreased by 112,000 in May<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black Employed decreased by 125,000 in May<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hispanic increased by 222,000 in May<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Labor Force Participation Rate decreased by 0.1% to 60.3% in May<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">White was unchanged at 62.3%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black increased 0.2% to 63.2%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hispanic increased 0.1% to 66.9%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hourly Wages increased by $0.11 to $33.44 in May<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/dedrick-asante-muhammad\/\">Dedrick Asante-Muhammad<\/a> is NCRC&#8217;s Chief of Organizing, Policy and Equity.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/jason-richardson\">Jason Richardson<\/a> is NCRC&#8217;s Senior Director of Research.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Photo Credit: Daniel Steuri via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/danielsteuri\/33695236526\/in\/photolist-TkwTTU-HWHc8N-SNHxxw-T8fsuN-cZGYXd-273VoNs-2jZ3QC8-2keUpw9-vpzQBp-7SoJFH-2mo1sdj-2kVLnbt-2jG2UY3-2krHBX9-Ypmh6-2kv44vY-2iJVnPr-2aUUjah-WqiQW9-yMojA-MYa5hy-2iVWbsq-2jvisJb-2iV7tN3-QuohpK-2ox1KGq-2d8tg9r-2idWn8j-2gFhk6g-75kryp-Curwec-2iVewVq-QfCNS8-2k9UCqo-2kDm4Ww-2nrGHDt-2hFtDKN-5Ao7bD-2ik1Nae-2hPgK99-2iihf6e-CXFNZz-2ig3CQn-CHLnnC-FhMVej-2gFP5tK-2jKfBag-2m13toD-V5ShWt-2mcCU8i\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Flickr<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Black unemployment rate is sometimes seen as a &#8220;canary in the coal mine&#8221; for the broader economy. When it begins to rise, it may signal a looming downturn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":926,"featured_media":139226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_angie_page":false,"content-type":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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Asante-Muhammad and Jason Richardson\u00a0","author_link":""},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"The Black unemployment rate is sometimes seen as a \"canary in the coal mine\" for the broader economy. When it begins to rise, it may signal a looming downturn.","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139222","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/926"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139222\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/139226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=139222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ncrc.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=139222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}